I found this article on the Atlantic, which is a reprint of an article by Alex Brown from the National Journal. The article has the catchy title. Here’s How NASA Thinks Society Will Collapse: Too much inequality and too few natural resources could leave the West vulnerable to a Roman Empire-style fall.
The Atlantic/National Journal article has a better title than that proposed by the team of scientists Safa Motesharreia, Jorge Rivasb, , and Eugenia Kalnayc, Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies.
Motesharrei, Rivas and Kalnay are systems theorists, mathematicians and climate modelers and this article is very inspiring, well written and an easy read. Looking back over the news articles of the time it was attacked in a variety of unfair ways. It was attacked because it was a NASA funded grant and so the title was considered misleading. It was attacked by the right who said that poor wealth income distribution does not lead to the collapse of a society. I think it is also attacked because it uses the a predator and prey model. In the abstract they state:
“we build a human population dynamics model by adding accumulated wealth and economic inequality to a predator–prey model of humans and nature. The model structure, and simulated scenarios that offer significant implications, are explained. Four equations describe the evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The model shows Economic Stratification or Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, in agreement with the historical record.”
I like this because it provides a model to consider in relation to why states collapse. It provides a counter to the belief of various invaders. Only recently have we been seriously considering climate change, disease, famine and global catastrophic events, tsunamis and super volcanoes as elements which throw our models of continuous growth out. The HANDY model provides a useful tool to consider the dynamics of state formation and collapse.
About me: Sean McClure is a former Senior Advisor at the White House. Sean is currently the Suspension and Debarment Advisor to the Department of the Treasury and with over 15 years of experience working at the White House, Department of the Treasury, USAID, and Department of State. He has traveled extensively to 35 countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Europe.
