In the September 11th issue of Science Advances http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/8/e1500589 lead author Ricarda Winkelmann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says that
“If we were to burn all attainable fossil fuel resources, this would eliminate the Antarctic ice sheet and cause long-term global sea-level rise unprecedented in human history…”
The article shows new calculations that Antarctica’s long-term contribution to sea-level rise could likely be restricted to a few meters that could still be manageable, if global warming did not exceed 2 degrees. Crossing this threshold, however, would in the long run destabilize both West and East Antarctica – causing sea-level rise that would reshape coastal regions around the globe for millennia to come.
” With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions.”
The issue is that at a point on the chart, 600 to 800 GtC, the point of no return and that the melt will continue unabated. That point, as seen in the chart is fairly early on in the process.
Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Ridgwell, K., Caldeira, K. (2015): Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science Advances
About me: Sean McClure is a former Senior Advisor at the White House. Sean is currently the Suspension and Debarment Advisor to the Department of the Treasury and with over 15 years of experience working at the White House, Department of the Treasury, USAID, and Department of State. He has traveled extensively to 35 countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Europe.
